A novel coronavirus [COVID-19] vaccine - assessing future global demand

Photo credit: US Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (@CDC on Unsplash)

This month VacZine Analytics, a UK-based strategic research publisher exclusively focused on vaccines and infectious diseases, releases a brand-new global demand analysis for novel coronavirus [COVID-19] vaccines.

The novel betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 emerged from Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China in late December 2019, causing a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases among stallholders at a seafood wholesale market. The resulting respiratory disease, later referred to as COVID-2019, was designated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on the 30th January 2020 and later a global pandemic by March 11th, 2020.

COVID-19 has affected >185 countries with close to 2 million confirmed cases and over 100 thousand deaths (as of 14th April 2020), mainly in the elderly and those with chronic underlying conditions. It is predicted that a large proportion of the world’s population will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 causing further excess morbidity, mortality and substantial economic loss. SARS-CoV-2 is related to other coronaviruses such as MERS-CoV (2012), SARS-CoV-1 (2003) and the endemic human betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 which cause the common cold.

There is no specific treatment for COVID-19 nor widespread immunity. Numerous efforts are now underway to develop new prophylatic vaccines and antiviral therapeutics to address the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. For vaccines, the Coalition of Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) is helping fund candidates including the frontrunners being developed by Moderna TherapeuticsInovio Pharmaceuticals and University of Oxford which have recently entered Phase I clinical testing. Large manufacturers such as GSK, Sanofi Pasteur, Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer are becoming involved. Other domestic clinical vaccine programmes are underway in China. The pursuit of antivirals e.g. remdesivir and other agents is also ongoing although the scientific validity of some early results is being questioned due to a lack of controlled studies.

The successful development of COVID-19 vaccine will be one of the greatest public health challenges for many decades but faces significant obstacles.

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive demand analysis containing an Executive Presentation (>240 slides) and 2 x MS Excel Workbook(s) (.xls) examining the potential (value/volume) of a prophylatic novel coronavirus [COVID-19] vaccine to 2045. The fully adjustable models have three detailed deployment scenarios which include the major Western economies, emerging economies of SE Asia, LATAM and the Far East (63 countries)*. 'At risk' populations and/or identified target segments (based on latest understanding) are included. A full review of disease background, latest epidemiology/outbreaks and competitor/R&D activity is also provided along with a discussion of hypothetical vaccine target product profiles (TPPs). This analysis is ideally suited to those organisations wanting to plan and quantify this significant operational challenge.

*15 countries are rolled up

Photo credit: US Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (@CDC on Unsplash)


VacZine Analytics is an established strategic research publisher based in the United Kingdom.

VacZine Analytics Ltd (Assay Advantage)