Martin Livermore writes:
Last week, readers who take an interest in such things would have been coming terms with the biggest surprise in UK politics for many a long year: the election of a majority Conservative government at a time when the era of multi-party politics was deemed to have replaced the old dominance by two parties and coalition or minority governments to have become the new norm.
With Labour and Conservatives apparently still neck and neck after a long, attritional campaign, the expectation was that the Tories would have the most seats but that Labour Party might become the governing party with the connivance of the ‘progressive’ Scottish National Party. The exact outcome would depend on a handful of seats and the possibility of cobbling together a working majority with like-minded minority parties. At last, it seemed, Britain was entering the same world of politics long inhabited by most other EU Member States, albeit with a rather different electoral system.
As we now know, this was not to be. Shortly after 10 pm on May 7, exit polls predicted a tiny Conservative majority. As we now know, this was an underestimate, and David Cameron remains as Prime Minister with a narrow, but currently workable, majority of 12 seats.
Even the prediction was a stunning turnaround, with many refusing to believe the story it gave until the actual results forced them to confront reality. LibDem bigwig Lord Ashdown vowed to eat his hat if the poll result turned out to be true, a kneejerk reaction he doubtlessly came to regret.
Of course, over the ensuing days, a number of people came out of the woodwork and claimed the result was no surprise to them, citing more detailed surveys in key constituencies, for example. And perhaps none of us should really have been surprised. We are, after all, apparently swayed by the opinions of the commentariat, but these are often people who live and breathe politics and are not typical voters. The situation may be quite different for individuals going into the polling booth and often following their gut instinct to go for the safer option.
Whatever the reasoning behind it, Messrs Cameron and Osborne will certainly not have been banking on this result and have, unsurprisingly, gone for relatively modest changes in the makeup of the Cabinet and junior ministerial positions. This time around, they even had the luxury of being able to fill a number of Cabinet posts previously held by their LibDem ex-coalition partners with members of their own party.
What does this mean for environmental policy? First, it’s clear that environmental issues were not high on the priority list for any party in the election, except of course the Greens. This was an election fought almost entirely on two issues: the economy and the future of the welfare state.
With the unexpected Tory victory, we know at least that there will be no messy compromises on policy; the government can be expected to try to deliver on its manifesto pledges, whether it actually wants to or not. While the issue of EU membership will be very much in the public eye up to the promised referendum (and, if Cameron manages to pull off a yes vote, that should effectively put the issue to bed for the foreseeable future), the dominant issue overall for the next five years will be cutting back on public expenditure and reducing government debt.
Although the scare stories from left-wing politicians and commentators about the end of the NHS and attacks on the deserving poor were, like most campaign statements, gross over-simplifications, George Osborne has to make some difficult choices and it will be hard to avoid pain for all. He will be keen to see strong growth in the economy; the faster it grows, the higher the tax revenues and the easier it is to shrink the state by simply keeping much of the expenditure level.
Energy is a significant part of the equation, with security and price both being important. This is a strong argument against continued expansion of renewable energy, and we can certainly expect to see government support for new onshore wind farms scrapped (David Cameron says people are ‘fed up’ with onshore wind farms). And both off-shore wind and new solar installations may also be under threat because the subsidy budget (capped at £7.6bn in 2020/21) has essentially all been swallowed up by an overspend on feed-in tariffs for small scale solar, with absolutely minimal impact in terms of contribution to the grid (Dear Energy Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money…).
While some environmentalists have been enthusiastic about the appointment of the new Energy and Climate Change Secretary (Amber Rudd: Climate Thatcherite promises green business boost; Amber Rudd faces climate change battle with Tory ‘grey blob’), they shouldn’t forget that she is there because she is an ally of George Osborne, and the Chancellor will expect expenditure to be reined in rather than increased.
Parties of all stripes are pretty much signed up to environmental protection these days, the more so because so much of the policy is made in Brussels. So the new government is making all the right noises on the key issues while, in many cases, probably not focussing too much attention on them.
Take, for example, Boris Johnson. He is an important figure in the party, once more an MP but restrained for now from getting a ministerial post by his current position as of Mayor of London. He is being quoted as saying the new government will be the ‘greenest ever’ (Boris Johnson: ‘Huskies are go’).
But the devil is in the detail. For example: Asked if the new government would face down climate sceptics in Conservative Party ranks and prioritise action on climate change Johnson declared: "I passionately believe in clean, green technology to reduce bills and reduce pollution, and look at what we're achieving". That is a clever politician’s answer, making no explicit commitment to focus on CO2 emissions reduction. He has also been criticised for his failure to divest City Hall’s pension fund of shares in fossil fuel companies, in defence of which he cites his support for fracking and use of clean gas.
The conclusion must be that the new government will put the economy first and be pragmatic on environmental issues. It will work to improve urban air quality and live within the carbon budgets established by the Climate Change Committee, but be less welcoming of subsidised renewable energy while facilitating shale gas exploration. In many ways, this almost certainly will be the greenest government ever, but that doesn’t mean it will compromise on economic growth. The future for the present generation of renewable energy technologies looks distinctly less rosy.