To the rest of the world, Britain is not leading the way with free trade, as it did centuries ago, it’s doing precisely the opposite.
- Victoria Bateman
Hard Brexit. Clean Brexit. Full Brexit. Naked Brexit. Whatever you want to call it, we now know what Brexit really means. Or do we? Theresa May's long awaited speech* isn't quite as clear cut as it seems. There are, in fact, four very different ways to interpret the Prime Minister's carefully crafted words, underpinned by what could be seen as the four motivating factors behind what would now appear to be Britain’s hard Brexit stance: the economy, politics, society and the art of negotiation.
Firstly, it could be a matter of “it’s the economy, stupid". Whilst economists are well known for predicting economic calamity as a result of the referendum decision, and the latest research suggests that, if anything, they were too optimistic - that factoring in the adverse effects of reduced immigration doubles the economic losses - there are those who argue that a clean break could bring economic benefits in the longer run. According to Shanker Singham, Chairman of the Special Trade Commission at the Legtaum Institute, these benefits arise from the potential for Britain to become more global: to, for example, eradicate the agricultural protectionism associated with the Common Agricultural Policy, and to make independent trade deals with the wider world. According to Singham, this can only be achieved by a "full Brexit". Whilst I have myself identified a number of issues with this type of "globalising Brexiteer" story, it may be that it has nevertheless persuaded the Prime Minister.
Of course, even if such hoped for economic benefits really are on offer, there is still a rather big fly in the ointment: the leap of faith that is required to read the Brexit vote as a vote for more - rather than less - globalisation. As I’ve argued elsewhere, Brexit supporters span the whole spectrum of economic views from the left-leaning to the free-market right. Global Britain might satisfy some not all, leading us down a yellow brick road of disappointment. And, even if the majority really are in support of a more global Britain, Theresa May’s strategy seems to involve pressing the de-globalisation button alongside the button for globalisation. To the rest of the world, Britain is not leading the way with free trade, as it did centuries ago, it’s doing precisely the opposite.
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*Read Theresa May's full speech here
Dr Victoria Bateman is a Fellow in Economics and economic historian, Gonville & Caius College
Image credit: Photo via flickr
Reproduced courtesy of the University of Cambridge
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