The UK Powerhouse study by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), predicts that in 2020 Q4, annual GVA* growth for Cambridge will be 1.8%.
The forecasts are based on the assumption that an amended version of the Brexit withdrawal agreement will form the basis of the future UK – EU relationship. It also assumes a transitional arrangement will be put in place that allows a continuation of the current relationship without any major disruptions until at least 2021.
Top five UK cities by GVA growth in Q4 2020
|
|
GVA Q4 2020, £mn (annualised, constant 2013 prices) |
Growth (YoY) |
|
Milton Keynes |
12,000 |
2.1% |
|
Reading |
6,700 |
2.0% |
|
Oxford |
8,800 |
1.9% |
|
Cambridge |
9,300 |
1.8% |
|
Brighton |
7,500 |
1.8% |
The report attributes Cambridge’s success to its sector makeup. It has a high proportion of professional and scientific activities and this along with a high concentration of information and communication related industries are forecast to grow well in the coming years.
In addition to securing a high position for GVA growth, Cambridge also came in top 10 for job creation. Employment levels are anticipated to go up by 1.5% to 141,100 people.
Looking even further ahead, Cambridge’s economy is expected to grow by over a fifth (21.4%) between now and the end of 2028.
Methodology note
All forecasts in this report utilise Cebr’s central scenario. Cebr’s central forecasts are based on the assumption that an amended version of the Brexit withdrawal agreement will form the basis of the future UK – EU relationship. We further assume that a transitional arrangement will be put in place that allows a continuation of the current relationship without any major disruptions until at least 2021. On the immigration policy, we rely on the lower immigration population estimates assuming that a visa system will be implemented for EU nationals, but that the requirements (e.g. the minimum salary, the NHS surcharge payment, the application fees, etc.) would be more relaxed than they currently are for non-EU nationals requiring a visa.
About Irwin Mitchell
Irwin Mitchell is one of the largest full service law firms in the UK working for both individuals and businesses.
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Irwin Mitchell Scotland LLP is a separate Scottish legal practice regulated by the Law Society of Scotland and has an office in Glasgow.
For more information visit www.irwinmitchell.com.