Finding common ground in the debate on climate change is very difficult. On one hand this is surprising, because there is no argument about the fundamentals of the impact of burning fossil fuels, but simply about the degree of this impact. On the other hand, the policy implications are profound. The choice is essentially between making an effort now to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible and leaving significant mitigation actions until we (or later generations) are both surer of what climatic changes are coming and also have an effective way to make a difference.
That, unfortunately, has simply led to a dialogue of the deaf. However, there is one thing which everyone can agree on: the need to adapt. With this in mind, it is interesting to take a look at the new report from the UK Committee on Climate Change’s Adaptation Sub-Group: Managing climate risks to well-being and the economy.
The key message the committee wants to get over this time is highlighted in its press release: Buildings and infrastructure ill-prepared for climate change. To quote from the report itself: “Last winter’s floods are consistent with the projected consequences of climate change, and the storms highlighted again the costs, damages and disruption that extreme weather can cause. . . In the UK, the most significant early impacts of climate change are likely to be increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather – heatwaves and flooding, and possibly storms and drought. Enhancing resilience to extreme weather will be an important aspect of future economic competitiveness. Adaptation of the built environment will be necessary to help safeguard the health and well-being of a growing and ageing population.”
One thing which has been highlighted by the media is the danger of heat waves. It seems that 90% of hospital wards are prone to overheating, which would of course be exacerbated by higher summer temperatures. It is interesting that the hospital wards which are better for patient comfort are the oldest ones (so-called ‘Nightingale wards’), with high ceilings and good natural ventilation, but these are being phased out as incompatible with modern nursing practice: a case of two steps forward, one step back, perhaps.
This problem is reported in the Telegraph as Hospitals at increasing risk of overheating due to climate change. A forthcoming study from the University of Cambridge shows that, even when the outside temperature is 22°C, it can be over 30° on some wards. In other words, heat waves certainly do not help, but there is a basic problem to be addressed in any case.
So it is with flooding. Whether or not the problem is getting worse, whatever the future might bring, high-rainfall areas are prone to flooding, particularly if the local geography means that there are pockets of land water drains into. Low-lying, flat areas may be equally vulnerable: the disastrous flooding on the Somerset levels last year being a case in point. Such areas have to be protected.
The lower reaches of rivers normally flow through flood plains; flat areas onto which the water floods at certain times. Despite that, planning authorities continue to allow houses to be built on them, increasing the number of households potentially affected by flooding. Similarly, the risk of downstream flooding is increased by encouraging arable farming on land which would have a much higher capacity to absorb flood water if left under natural vegetation.
Such things can be avoided, but other things are beyond our control. The risks of sea level rise have also been highlighted. We know that levels are rising by a few millimetres each year, and have been for the last few centuries, as part of a very long-term recovery from the last Ice Age. There are regional differences, with the South East of England sinking slightly while North West Scotland rises, but the general trend is a worldwide one. Earlier civilisations would simply have moved to new settlement sites if necessary, but our cities and towns are pretty much permanent fixtures so need a degree of protection. Hence, for example, the Thames Flood Barrier.
But a combination of sea level change and the effect of waves and ocean currents continues to shape coastlines and has had noticeable impacts in the historical period. The east coast of England is particularly vulnerable. Cliffs around Scarborough in Yorkshire are eroding fast enough for a number of buildings to have been lost to the sea. Further south, the early capital of East Anglia lay near the present-day village of Dunwich, but storms moved the mouth of the river on which it was built a couple of miles north. Having lost its harbour, it was no longer worth protecting, and further coastal erosion saw it disappear.
The opposite can also happen. Rye is an attractive little town a couple of miles from the Sussex coast, but in medieval times was an important member of the so-called Cinque Ports, a military and trade confederation. When dredging was abandoned, the silting-up process took its natural course. In a similar way, Chester was a significant port on the river Dee at the time of the English Civil War. When this silted up and became unusable, the port moved downstream to Parkgate, itself now with a promenade next to salt marsh with the river channel some distance away.
So whatever climate changes may occur, we need to make buildings and communities resilient. Flooding may get worse, but we already know which are the vulnerable areas. Heat waves may become more frequent, but are already a problem in buildings which are not designed for them. Northern Europe needs to learn lessons from the Mediterranean. Coastlines continue to change and we need to make hard decisions about what to protect and what to leave to the vagaries of the weather. Adaptation is an imperative.
Martin Livermore
The Scientific Alliance
St John’s Innovation Centre
Cowley Road
Cambridge CB4 0WS
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