Making the Numbers Work: The Commercial Case for Electric Freight is the first output of the 12 Pillars of Change workshop programme, an industry-led initiative designed to surface practical answers to the barriers blocking freight electrification. It draws on a workshop held in March 2026 that put fleet operators in the same room as a truck financier, an insurance specialist, an energy supplier, charging infrastructure providers, and an OEM representative.
The report finds that the commercial case for electric freight is closer than headlines suggest. Grant-supported tractor units are now leasing at diesel-equivalent rates. Chinese manufacturers are undercutting European OEMs by a third. Diesel-to-electric refurbishment is opening up a cheaper route for capital-constrained operators. Where depot charging is available, electric trucks are 15-25% cheaper to run than diesel.
But it identifies three specific policy failures stalling adoption at scale, all of them within government's gift to fix.
The first is grant capture. The Plug-in Truck Grant structure allows large operators placing volume orders to absorb the entire allocation, locking smaller hauliers out. Over half of UK HGVs sit in fleets of ten vehicles or fewer. The report recommends reserving at least 40% of annual grant funding for operators with fewer than 50 vehicles.
The second is the Depot Charging Scheme, which funds chargepoints and civils but not the grid connection upgrade that operators report as their largest single infrastructure cost. Connections cost between £5,000 and £5 million and take up to three years.
The third is the Residual Value Guarantee. The Green Finance Institute proposed it. CALSTART published the blueprint. The modelling is done. It remains unimplemented, leaving finance providers pricing blind on used electric trucks.
Jamie Sands, founder of TwentyForty and Head of Solutions at Welch Group, said:
"The current grant structure makes the maths work for operators who already have the capital and the volume. The fleets that actually need a hand to get into electric, the small and medium operators who make up over half the UK truck market, are walking away because they can't compete with bulk orders for the same pot. If SMEs can't join the transition, it doesn't happen."
He added:
"Three things are stopping electrification at scale, and all three are within government's gift to fix. Ring-fence the grant for smaller fleets. Make the Depot Charging Scheme cover grid connections, which is where most operators get stuck. Implement the Residual Value Guarantee that's already been designed and modelled. None of these are new ideas. They're tweaks to schemes that already exist."
The full report is available to download at https://twentyforty.uk/twelve-pillars/making-the-numbers-work
