This month VacZine Analytics, a UK-based strategic research publisher exclusively focused on vaccines and infectious diseases, releases a new updated ‘seasonal scenario’ global demand analysis for COVID-19 vaccines.
COVID-19 vaccines and the seasonal scenario
The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 emerged from Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China in late December 2019, causing a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases among stallholders at a seafood wholesale market. The resulting respiratory disease, later referred to as COVID-2019, was designated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on the 30th January 2020 and later a global pandemic by March 11th, 2020.
COVID-19 has affected ~190 countries/territories with greater than 140 million confirmed cases and over 3 million deaths (as of 19th April 2021), mainly in the elderly and those with chronic underlying conditions. It is predicted that a large proportion of the global population will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 causing further excess morbidity, mortality and substantial economic loss. SARS-CoV-2 is related to other coronaviruses such as MERS-CoV (2012), SARS-CoV-1 (2003) and the endemic human betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 which cause the common cold.
There is no specific treatment for COVID-19. Whether widespread herd immunity can be achieved is deeply controversial. Numerous efforts have been underway to develop new prophylatic vaccines and antiviral therapeutics to address the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Four Western vaccines (of fourteen total in use) have recently gained Emergency Use Approval (EUA) in selected nations and include Moderna Therapeutics (mRNA-1273), Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162b2), Janssen (JNJ-78436735) and Oxford/AstraZeneca (AZD1222, ChAdOx1-nCOV-19). The mRNA approaches have shown high efficacy for the primary and secondary endpoints set for the Phase III pivotal studies and are currently being used in mass vaccination programs with approximately 900 mio doses (all vaccines) being administered to date (As of April 19th 2021, Our World in Data). Other vaccines from Novavax and ROW producers have now also shown Phase III efficacy. Boosters, multivalent and pediatric strategies are now underway (mRNA-1273.351 and mRNA.211).
This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive commercial evaluation containing an Executive Presentation and interactive MS Excel Model (s) (.xls) examining the potential (value/volume) of a prophylatic COVID-19 vaccine per competitor to 2045. The model has three detailed and fully adjustable deployment scenarios which include the major Western economies, emerging economies of SE Asia, LATAM and the Far East*. 'At risk' populations or identified target segments (based on latest understanding) are included. A review of competitor R&D activity is also provided along with a discussion of latest epidemiology re: variants and new product strategy. Market potential in the post-pandemic ‘seasonal scenario’ along with pricing considerations and various boosting/schedule scenarios is also addressed.
*15 countries are rolled up
VacZine Analytics is a strategic research agency based in the United Kingdom since 2007. We aim to provide disease and commercial analysis for the vaccine industry and help build the case for developing new vaccines and biologics.
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VacZine Analytics® is a trading division of Assay Advantage Ltd, UK Company No. 5807728
Image: CDC, available on unsplash
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VacZine Analytics is an established strategic research publisher based in the United Kingdom.