As everyone is only too well aware, a massive typhoon has caused severe damage and loss of life in the Philippines. This is a personal tragedy for many and all efforts are needed to help the survivors and rebuild the stricken areas. However, we have also seen something which I think is both unwarranted and smacks of emotional blackmail: an eagerness to link Typhoon Haiyan with manmade climate change.
Although it was understandable that the head of the Filipino delegation to the Warsaw climate change talks (Naderev Saño), himself from the devastated city of Tacloban, should have made an emotional address to the assembled delegates, his message was questionable. According to the Telegraph report (Typhoon Haiyan ‘the result of climate change’) in the course of a tearful speech he said “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness. We can fix this. We can stop this madness. Right now, right here.” He was given a standing ovation. The display of sympathy was a natural human reaction, but the implicit belief in his message is a bit more worrying.
Mr Saño also wrote an article for the Guardian, headlined Typhoon Haiyan: we cannot afford to procrastinate on climate action. In this he developed the theme further: “To anyone who continues to deny the reality that is climate change, I dare them to get off their ivory towers and away from the comfort of their armchairs. I dare them to go to the islands of the Pacific, the islands of the Caribbean and the islands of the Indian ocean and see the impacts of rising sea levels… Not to forget the massive hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern seaboard of North America...Science tells us that simply, climate change will mean more intense tropical storms. As the Earth warms up, so do the oceans. The energy that is stored in the waters off the Philippines will increase the intensity of typhoons and the trend we now see is that more destructive storms will be the new norm.”
Even the president of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, has reinforced the message, telling the BBC that warming could no longer be ignored. He “urged action to reduce emissions to minimise the likelihood of disasters such as typhoon Haiyan.” This was reported in a BBC piece (2013 ‘one of the warmest’ on record), in which the head of the World Meteorological Organization, Michel Jarraud, also said that “it was expected that the impact of tropical storms would be more intense”.
Despite these high-profile statements, the IPCC itself is taking a much more cautious line, and the evidence for more or higher intensity tropical storms is at best flimsy. The 2013 north Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet and the last few years have been by no means abnormal. Haiyan does appear to have been the most powerful tropical storm to have made landfall, with wind speeds of more than 310 km/hour, but the previous record was held by Hurricane Camille as far back as 1969, hitting Mississippi with wind speeds of over 300 km/hour. Given that carbon dioxide levels have risen from about 320ppm to 400ppm in that period, any direct impact on storms is difficult to discern.
As a side issue, the BBC has made quite a lot of a report issued this week, for presentation at the Warsaw climate change conference (COP19) – Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers 2013 - based on a meeting in California last year under the auspices of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (for the BBC report, see Emissions of CO2 driving rapid ocean ‘acid trip’). The key message is that “acidification could increase by 170% by 2100 [and] that some 30% of ocean species are unlikely to survive in these conditions”.
Bear in mind once again that these conclusions are the result of modelling and, in particular are quoted for the high CO2 emissions scenario, which is rather unlikely to come about. It also makes a number of assumptions about the degree of mixing and the resultant pH in the surface layers of the oceans. Even then, the projected result is for a final pH of about 7.75, down from 8.1 currently. Talk of acidification is misleading: this water would still be mildly alkaline. Perhaps in acknowledgement of this fact, the term ‘souring’ is beginning to be used. However this is still inaccurate and has clearly been chosen to create a negative impression.
It is undeniable that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the air will cause some reduction in ocean pH. This may indeed be cause for concern, as it will undoubtedly have an impact on some sea life. However, there are plenty of more pressing concerns, particularly regarding coastal waters, and the ocean ‘acidification’ story must be put in a broader context.
Climate change campaigners will inevitably use whatever tools they have at their disposal to press their case. The ocean pH story is based on legitimate scientific evidence, but has been hyped, using only the worst case scenario. This is not an uncommon thing to happen. However, the human tragedy in the Philippines has also been hijacked to create more pressure for global action on emissions reduction.
But even those pushing hardest must know that the pace of change will be very slow. The many thousands of official delegates and accredited observers in Warsaw are in the middle of two weeks of complex bureaucratic discussions. The meeting is technically the 19th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP19) and also a meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP). Various groups meeting include the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP), the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation, discussing issues including agriculture, gender, the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility. You get the picture.
None of this is going to have any noticeable effect on emissions any time soon. Efforts to reduce use of coal and oil are doomed to failure until China and other large, rapidly-developing economies see it in their interest to do so. In the meantime, many areas of the world are vulnerable to tropical storms, drought, floods, earthquakes and more whatever direction the climate takes. Putting more effort into protecting such areas, whether or not it is done in the name of adaption to climate change, will benefit tens of millions of people around the world. Futile and costly attempts to force emissions reduction will benefit only those in the renewable energy industry and middlemen in emissions trading systems.
Martin Livermore
The Scientific Alliance
St John’s Innovation Centre
Cowley Road
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