This is certainly not the first time this has been said, but it’s worth repeating: a reliable energy supply is vital for a developed economy. It was concentrated energy in the form of coal which literally powered the Industrial Revolution, and it is coal, oil and gas which have underpinned the enormous changes in modern societies over the last century.
Take that away, and the fabric of everyday life would quickly unravel. On the other hand, if we have an assured supply of affordable energy, almost anything is possible. In principle, water no longer becomes a constraint on agriculture, because it can either be purified if saline or piped from elsewhere into arid areas. Costs at present limit this vision, but reverse osmosis plants are already not uncommon in the water supply to major cities.
Synthetic fertilizer supports much of our farm output. Fixing atmospheric nitrogen is a very energy intensive process, but cheap energy makes this vital input economic to use. Other nutrients – particularly phosphorus – are extracted from finite deposits. However, cheap energy could allow it to be extracted and concentrated from the many dilute sources available, which are presently too costly to exploit.
Secure energy and food supplies are in essence the two key prerequisites for societies to prosper. To this we can arguably add information and computer technology, which also needs a constant supply of energy to power the network of servers we rely on for the information and processing power we expect to be on tap. A report last year claimed that ICT consumed 10% of the world’s electricity (The surprisingly large energy footprint of the digital economy). This has been criticised but, nevertheless, the ubiquity of computers, tablets, smartphones and digital media make this a growing slice of energy consumption, and almost as vital as the food supply.
In the normal run of things, economics would dictate a transition from one major source of energy to another. Oil became the primary source of transport fuel because it could offer concentrated energy in an easily transported and usable form. Gas is the preferred fuel for domestic heating because it is clean, can be easily supplied by grid and cheaper to use than electricity.
Policy also makes a difference. The Clean Air Act in the UK banned domestic coal fires in urban areas and transformed London and other cities from polluted places with uniformly sooty buildings into the (relatively) clean and bright areas we see today. Usually, policy nudges things in the direction of what is already a natural course to be taken, but climate change policy is a significant step beyond that.
After publishing the reports of the three working groups which together make up the Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC has now released the all-important Synthesis Report and, in particular, the Summary for Policymakers. In a BBC report on the process (IPCC preparing ‘most important’ document on climate change), we learn that “This new study is meant to take the most important elements of all three and blend them into something new. It is not meant to be a cut-and-paste exercise.” This gives a clear sense that this is about communicating clear messages to governments, not just putting forward the evidence from which people can draw their own conclusions.
All the evidence on which this synthesis document is based has been published before, but the time spent by participating governments agreeing the final text in Copenhagen shows how important is the strength of the overall message in increasing the pressure for a binding agreement in Paris next year. Although the 2009 Copenhagen climate change summit represented the high point of hopes for such an agreement, negotiators haven’t given up, and scary headlines still appear, albeit in fewer media outlets (see, for example, Climate change ‘final warning’ as IPCC report pushes for fossil fuel phase-out by 2100). The tag line for this is that climate change impacts will be ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’.
The trouble is that such apocalyptic language does not encourage cool thinking. Desperate to get the elusive agreement concluded, the negotiators are ramping up the rhetoric to make people take notice. By now they should realise that this tactic doesn’t work and that most of the public are simply not that interested in the issue. But it is enough to keep governments at least paying lip service to the need to decarbonise and to keep implementing policies which are ineffective.
It would take political courage to admit that European climate change policy, from the failed EU Emissions Trading System to Germany’s perverse mix of wind, solar and brown coal, isn’t working. Because every reduction in CO2 output in the EU is more than offset by increases elsewhere, at least partly driven by growing European imports of cheap goods produced in countries like China that do not labour under any obligation to cut emissions.
In the short to medium term, the path of least regret would be to build a lot more new nuclear power stations. But the longer term answer is simply to invest in more research into energy generation – including the ever-elusive nuclear fusion – and energy storage. If the difficult nut of providing affordable energy storage on a vast scale could be cracked, the contribution of wind and solar energy could be quite positive, as part of the overall mix. But to push ahead with more renewables at a time when capacity margins are at historically low levels is to risk the prosperity of a whole region without making an iota of difference to global emissions.
Voters are not stupid. They can understand clear messages and know when they are being hoodwinked. A radical change of direction now would be vigorously opposed by climate change negotiators and a range of vested interests, but not by the electorate. Guaranteed energy security with R&D investment to develop the clean energy systems of the future is certain to prove both popular and effective. Who has the political courage to propose it?
Martin Livermore
The Scientific Alliance
St John’s Innovation Centre
Cowley Road
Cambridge CB4 0WS
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