- Outlook of +11% for the region, up 5 points
- High volumes of temporary opportunities
- More European workers leaving the UK
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is based on responses from 2,100 UK employers. It asks whether employers intend to hire additional workers or reduce the size of their workforce in the coming quarter. It is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind and is used as a key economic statistic by both the Bank of England and the UK government.
Simon Edwards, Operations Director for Manpower UK said: “After a slight dip in confidence last quarter, it is great to see the East regain its status as being the most confident about hiring in the UK. There has been steady job creation in the region, with Addison Lee and Alltech creating hundreds of opportunities, for instance. In addition, we have seen a change in the types of job on offer, with huge growth in temporary opportunities regionally - more so than permanent ones. Alongside this, we have also seen more individuals looking to leave full time management positions and take up flexible roles with fewer responsibilities and a better work life balance.
“However, cracks are starting to show as the region starts to feel the effects of Brexit. With EU nationals still uncertain about their future status in the UK, we have observed that more European workers are leaving the UK. This is already leaving many opportunities in the manufacturing industry unfilled.”
Nationally, employers have recorded a one point uptick in optimism with a national Outlook of +6%. A surge in positivity among public sector employers is a key factor in the improved national picture, with hiring intentions in this sector up 4 points to +2%, the biggest rise since 2015.
James Hick, ManpowerGroup Solutions Managing Director: “This is the first time in over a year that public sector hiring plans have been in positive territory. June’s general election outcome was seen in part as a rejection of austerity, and it looks like the public sector is powering on, as hiring ramps up. At the beginning of the year there were 86,000 vacancies in the NHS; the government recently announced that it will train an additional 1500 doctors a year and create 20,000 new mental health posts. However, with the health service so heavily dependent on EU nationals, these hiring targets are going to be extremely difficult to meet. And that’s just the NHS; there are tens of thousands of vacancies in other government departments.”
Hick explains: “The tough reality lurking beneath all these positive indicators is that these hiring intentions may not come to fruition because of difficulties attracting and retaining skilled employees. Take construction, where companies are reporting a stronger pipeline of work than they have for years with an Outlook this quarter of +11%, up six points from last quarter. However, without a pool of skilled workers to actually do the work, buildings will go unbuilt and projects will flounder. There is lots of talk around what we need to do to fix the UK’s ailing housing market at present but politicians’ promises are just hot air without the essential skilled talent needed to deliver these programmes.”
Regionally, confidence in London, where housing and the broader cost of living is the highest, has halved to +4% since last quarter. Employers in the South East maintain their confident streak with an Outlook of +10%. Another winner is Northern Ireland following the DUP-negotiated “supply and demand” deal resulting in a cash injection of at least £1 billion. This has already boosted hiring optimism in Northern Ireland, where employers report a surprise jump ahead of the UK national average to +7% this quarter.
Notes
A ‘Net Employment Outlook’ is calculated by subtracting those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative result reflects the opposite. [% increase - % decrease]
Commentary and full details on every sector and region can be found in the survey report at manpowergroup.co.uk/meos
For international comparisons and visual library with graphs, visit manpowergroup.com
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For further information, please contact:
Brunswick – Serena Balachandra 020 7404 5959
Email: manpower@brunswickgroup.com
Twitter: #MEOSUK
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